Offender Outcome Analysis
Outcome analysis aims to determine what net effects result from the application of a system or process, such as an assessment method that aims to measure risk for future recidivism. Outcome analysis may also compare one system, such as a treatment or intervention, to another system or process or to the absence of any such intervention. Outcome analyses of criminal justice processes usually measure net effects on recidivism that result from changes in:
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Offender assessment content and delivery methods,
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Offender / supervisor interaction norms,
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Ways offenders are matched to treatment programs based on their criminogenic needs,
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Treatment program delivery methods,
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Post-treatment, probation, or incarceration follow-up,
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Content, methods, or frequency or practitioner training,
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Implementation of internal quality control measures for practitioners,
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Or any other change area that might affect recidivism rates.
For a simpler study, outcome analysis clarifies how effective a risk assessment practice is in identifying which offenders warrant greater supervision and use of resources (see Instrument Validation). In a more detailed, scientific comparison of control / status quo conditions to change implementation conditions, outcome analysis looks for changes in recidivism measures such as rates of rearrest, technical violations, termination status, self-report of deviance, and self-report of grade / employment retention.
Knowing what kinds of effects system changes have on recidivism rates allows criminal justice agencies to decide whether the changes they have made should be kept or how they might be changed to produce more positive outcomes. This level of measurement is essential to Evidence-Based Practices in community corrections.
Our Experience in Outcome Analysis
Over the last 10 years, J-SAT has conducted outcome studies for each of the following agencies:
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Connecticut Judicial Branch CSSD Adult and Juvenile Probation and Provider Network
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Cook County Juvenile probation
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DuPage County Probation
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Hawaii Department of Public Safety and Judicial Probation
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Illinois AOIC Probation
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Indiana Lake County Probation
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Maine Department of Corrections
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Montana Probation Board
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North Dakota Department of Corrections
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San Diego Juvenile Probation
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Utah Salt Lake County Division of Substance Abuse Services
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Vermont Department of Corrections
J-SAT is one of the very few agencies experienced in multi-site, multi-year progressive research investigating Evidence-Based Practices in community corrections settings.
Setting Up an Outcome Analysis
Before you contact us about setting up an outcome analysis for your agency, you may want to think through some of the following questions, as we will need this kind of information from you to tailor our services to your needs:
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What kind of system change will be the focus of the outcome analysis?
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What recidivism measures is the change aiming to effect?
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What procedures will be necessary for setting aside a control / comparison group that does not receive the system change or that receives another kind of change and is similar enough to the “change” group to warrant sound comparison?
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What size of offender sample is available for the analysis? (Typically, 100 is the minimum sample size for reliable analysis.)
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Which sub-populations would be important to consider within the overall sample?
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How can you ensure that the sub-populations represent a significant enough proportion of the entire sample for reliable analysis?
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At what points in time should follow-up recidivism data be collected?
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What will be the collection procedure?
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What logistical, financial, or political obstacles should be thought through in advance for successful project design, data collection, and completion of the analysis?
Services That Can Accompany Outcome Analysis
System Flow Analysis— identifies the sequences that combine to make up agency processes and event cycles, visually represents those processes to make them easily understandable, and offers recommendations for increased system efficiency and accountability.
Instrument Validation and Reliability Testing—tests to see if an assessment system produces measurements that are consistently associated with an outcome of interest, such as criminal recidivism.
Workload Analysis—identifies discrepancies in staff workload assignments and process inefficiencies; measures actual time spent on various functions and tasks against agency expectations or practices shown to reduce recidivism.
Quality Assurance Structure Analysis—assesses agency goals, documents current quality assurance procedures, and recommends revisions or additions to QA practices that optimize goal achievement.
Dashboard Agency Measures—an automated application tailored to your agency’s quality assurance goals, providing allowing for quick, objective measurement of current progress toward agency goal completion.
Automated Case Planning Software—streamlines the assessment-to-treatment-matching process for juvenile offenders, ensuring that case planning strategies follow Evidence-Based Practices.
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